PET vs recycled-PET 1 L bottle

Medium riskNeeds reviewBeverage Packaging Ops · Cradle-to-gate · Product pathway

Monte Carlo uncertainty - rPET

Current rPET confidence and risk distribution

Summarize the modeled interval, assumption quality, and reviewer guidance for per 1 l bottle, cradle-to-gate before results are used in reports or claims.

Needs review10,000 runs

Median impact

3,207kg CO2e

Pilot run P50 result

90% interval

60%

2,331-4,251 kg CO2e

Exceedance risk

35%

Above the project review bound

Review gates

1of 4

0 uncertainty actions resolved

Low confidenceReviewer context required

Supplier transport distance is driving the upper uncertainty tail.

The P5-P95 interval spans 2,331 to 4,251 kg CO2e. Treat comparative language as bounded until 250 km road proxy is attached or explicitly disclosed.

Confidence interval

P5 / P50 / P95

P5 2,331P50 3,207P95 4,251

Distribution

Simulation buckets

Frequency of total GWP outcomes across the Monte Carlo run.

Pilot run / kg CO2e

2.3k-2.7k

18%

2.7k-3.0k

31%

3.0k-3.3k

24%

3.3k-3.6k

14%

3.6k-3.9k

3.9k-4.3k

Risk distribution

Claim-readiness spread

48%

usable with caveats

Within expected range48%
Needs reviewer context35%
Not claim-ready17%

Contribution context

Hotspots under uncertainty

rPET process shares used as uncertainty anchors.

Virgin PET resin production1,668 kg
52%
Grid electricity (blowing + injection)770 kg
24%
Preform & bottle forming353 kg
11%
Resin transport257 kg
8%
Utilities & site overhead160 kg
5%

Data quality

Uncertainty drivers

Parameters contributing most to interval width.

4 drivers

Driver	Quality signal	Variance share	Reviewer note
Recycled PET content	Medium confidence	40%	Procurement can use this as a decision screen once bale contamination is confirmed.
Bottle mass	High confidence	24%	Mass bounds are ready for scenario comparison with performance caveats attached.
Electricity emission factor	Medium confidence	22%	Needs final method choice before ReCiPe is shown alongside TRACI.
Supplier transport distance	Low confidence	13%	Reviewer asked for a sensitivity bound before this packet leaves screening.

Assumptions

Modeled basis

Per 1 L bottle, cradle-to-gate

Functional basis

Supplier transport distance: 250 km road proxy

Expert needed

TRACI 2.1 + ReCiPe 2016 used for uncertainty and robustness context.

Method set

Required before public comparative claims or export release.

Limitation

Reviewer guidance

Use limitations

4 open

Critical review leadREVIEWER

Reviewer asked for a sensitivity bound before this packet leaves screening. Keep supplier transport distance visible in limitations until the evidence gate is approved.

LCIA analystREVIEWER

Global warming: Transport remains a proxy, so public comparison still needs review. Evidence note: Foreground mass balance and electricity records are linked.

Materials reviewerREVIEWER

Fossil depletion: Supplier-specific resin routes need one more dataset cross-check. Evidence note: Background resin and electricity datasets are characterized.

Impact reviewerREVIEWER

Acidification: Air-emission allocation should be spot-checked before sign-off. Evidence note: Characterization factors are present for the modeled flows.

Interpretation boundary

Use rPET results for internal screening and improvement prioritization until the active evidence gate is bounded.

Next actions

Reviewer checklist

0/3

1Bound supplier transport distance before interpretation review.
2Confirm TRACI 2.1 + ReCiPe 2016 coverage for the uncertainty appendix.
3Move rPET uncertainty language into report limitations.

Driver

Quality signal

Variance share

Reviewer note

Recycled PET content

Medium confidence

40%

Procurement can use this as a decision screen once bale contamination is confirmed.

Bottle mass

High confidence

24%

Mass bounds are ready for scenario comparison with performance caveats attached.

Electricity emission factor

Medium confidence

22%

Needs final method choice before ReCiPe is shown alongside TRACI.

Supplier transport distance

Low confidence

13%

Reviewer asked for a sensitivity bound before this packet leaves screening.

Driver

Quality signal

Variance share

Reviewer note

Recycled PET content

Medium confidence

40%

Procurement can use this as a decision screen once bale contamination is confirmed.

Bottle mass

High confidence

24%

Mass bounds are ready for scenario comparison with performance caveats attached.

Electricity emission factor

Medium confidence

22%

Needs final method choice before ReCiPe is shown alongside TRACI.

Supplier transport distance

Low confidence

13%

Reviewer asked for a sensitivity bound before this packet leaves screening.