Engineered flooring — EPD readiness

High riskAI draftNorthwood Surfaces · Cradle-to-grave · EPD readiness

Monte Carlo uncertainty - Engineered

Engineered flooring confidence and risk distribution

Summarize the modeled interval, assumption quality, and reviewer guidance for per 1 m2 flooring panel, cradle-to-grave before results are used in reports or claims.

Needs review10,000 runs

Median impact

51,200kg CO2e

EPD batch P50 result

90% interval

64%

36,291-68,977 kg CO2e

Exceedance risk

38%

Above the project review bound

Review gates

1of 4

0 uncertainty actions resolved

Low confidenceReviewer context required

Pressing electricity factor is driving the upper uncertainty tail.

The P5-P95 interval spans 36,291 to 68,977 kg CO2e. Treat comparative language as bounded until pressing line utility proxy is attached or explicitly disclosed.

Confidence interval

P5 / P50 / P95

P5 36,291P50 51,200P95 68,977

Distribution

Simulation buckets

Frequency of total GWP outcomes across the Monte Carlo run.

EPD batch / kg CO2e

36k-42k

18%

42k-47k

31%

47k-53k

24%

53k-58k

14%

58k-64k

64k-69k

Risk distribution

Claim-readiness spread

48%

usable with caveats

Within expected range48%
Needs reviewer context34%
Not claim-ready18%

Contribution context

Hotspots under uncertainty

Engineered process shares used as uncertainty anchors.

Engineered wood substrate17,408 kg
34%
Adhesive resin system12,288 kg
24%
Hot pressing electricity10,240 kg
20%
Surface coating and melamine layer7,168 kg
14%
Packaging and end-of-life4,096 kg
8%

Data quality

Uncertainty drivers

Parameters contributing most to interval width.

4 drivers

Driver	Quality signal	Variance share	Reviewer note
Pressing electricity factor	Low confidence	31%	The EPD reviewer needs a bounded electricity factor before publication.
Adhesive resin emission factor	Low confidence	25%	Replace or bound the resin proxy before any public EPD claim.
Panel thickness	High confidence	24%	Thickness bounds are mature enough for EPD interpretation tables.
Recycled core content	Medium confidence	20%	Useful for interpretation, but availability should be caveated.

Assumptions

Modeled basis

Per 1 m2 flooring panel, cradle-to-grave

Functional basis

Pressing electricity factor: Pressing line utility proxy

Expert needed

EN 15804+A2 + CML 2002 used for uncertainty and robustness context.

Method set

Required before EPD publication and public product claims.

Limitation

Reviewer guidance

Use limitations

4 open

LCA analystREVIEWER

The EPD reviewer needs a bounded electricity factor before publication. Keep pressing electricity factor visible in limitations until the evidence gate is approved.

EPD reviewerREVIEWER

Global warming: This high-risk public claim needs PCR and third-party reviewer evidence. Evidence note: Draft EPD inventory includes substrate, resin, pressing, and packaging modules.

Materials reviewerREVIEWER

Fossil depletion: Supplier resin data is still a proxy and must be replaced before publication. Evidence note: Resin and electricity background datasets are mapped.

Impact reviewerREVIEWER

Acidification: Air emissions from coating are not measured yet. Evidence note: EN 15804 characterization factors are applied.

Interpretation boundary

Use Engineered results for internal screening and improvement prioritization until the active evidence gate is bounded.

Next actions

Reviewer checklist

0/3

1Bound pressing electricity factor before interpretation review.
2Confirm EN 15804+A2 + CML 2002 coverage for the uncertainty appendix.
3Move Engineered uncertainty language into report limitations.

Driver

Quality signal

Variance share

Reviewer note

Pressing electricity factor

Low confidence

31%

The EPD reviewer needs a bounded electricity factor before publication.

Adhesive resin emission factor

Low confidence

25%

Replace or bound the resin proxy before any public EPD claim.

Panel thickness

High confidence

24%

Thickness bounds are mature enough for EPD interpretation tables.

Recycled core content

Medium confidence

20%

Useful for interpretation, but availability should be caveated.

Driver

Quality signal

Variance share

Reviewer note

Pressing electricity factor

Low confidence

31%

The EPD reviewer needs a bounded electricity factor before publication.

Adhesive resin emission factor

Low confidence

25%

Replace or bound the resin proxy before any public EPD claim.

Panel thickness

High confidence

24%

Thickness bounds are mature enough for EPD interpretation tables.

Recycled core content

Medium confidence

20%

Useful for interpretation, but availability should be caveated.