Bio-based packaging — grant appendix

Low riskAnalyst reviewedAgriPolymers Research · Screening · Grant support

Monte Carlo uncertainty - Bio blend

Bio-based blend confidence and risk distribution

Summarize the modeled interval, assumption quality, and reviewer guidance for per compostable tray, screening cradle-to-gate before results are used in reports or claims.

Needs review10,000 runs

Median impact

4,200kg CO2e

Grant pilot P50 result

90% interval

60%

3,053-5,567 kg CO2e

Exceedance risk

35%

Above the project review bound

Review gates

1of 4

0 uncertainty actions resolved

Low confidenceReviewer context required

Agricultural feedstock distance is driving the upper uncertainty tail.

The P5-P95 interval spans 3,053 to 5,567 kg CO2e. Treat comparative language as bounded until imported starch proxy is attached or explicitly disclosed.

Confidence interval

P5 / P50 / P95

P5 3,053P50 4,200P95 5,567

Distribution

Simulation buckets

Frequency of total GWP outcomes across the Monte Carlo run.

Grant pilot / kg CO2e

3.1k-3.5k

18%

3.5k-3.9k

31%

3.9k-4.3k

24%

4.3k-4.7k

14%

4.7k-5.1k

5.1k-5.6k

Risk distribution

Claim-readiness spread

48%

usable with caveats

Within expected range48%
Needs reviewer context35%
Not claim-ready17%

Contribution context

Hotspots under uncertainty

Bio blend process shares used as uncertainty anchors.

Bio-based resin production1,596 kg
38%
Agricultural feedstock cultivation1,008 kg
24%
Film extrusion and thermoforming756 kg
18%
Packaging transport462 kg
11%
Compostability testing overhead378 kg
9%

Data quality

Uncertainty drivers

Parameters contributing most to interval width.

4 drivers

Driver	Quality signal	Variance share	Reviewer note
Certified bio-based resin share	Medium confidence	34%	Grant appendix should show how certified resin share changes the screening result.
Extrusion electricity factor	Medium confidence	28%	Confirm renewable procurement assumptions before the grant-ready scenario is exported.
Tray mass	High confidence	23%	Mass bounds are stable enough for grant appendix sensitivity.
Agricultural feedstock distance	Low confidence	16%	Bound regional feedstock sourcing before the grant comparison is used externally.

Assumptions

Modeled basis

Per compostable tray, screening cradle-to-gate

Functional basis

Agricultural feedstock distance: Imported starch proxy

Expert needed

TRACI 2.1 + ReCiPe 2016 used for uncertainty and robustness context.

Method set

Needed before the grant packet can cite the modeled advantage.

Limitation

Reviewer guidance

Use limitations

4 open

Critical review leadREVIEWER

Bound regional feedstock sourcing before the grant comparison is used externally. Keep agricultural feedstock distance visible in limitations until the evidence gate is approved.

Grant LCA analystREVIEWER

Global warming: The comparison is screening-grade until certification documents are attached. Evidence note: Grant inventory and supplier mass-balance notes are linked.

Materials reviewerREVIEWER

Fossil depletion: The fossil baseline should be rechecked against the procurement incumbent. Evidence note: Fossil resin displacement is characterized with TRACI factors.

Impact reviewerREVIEWER

Acidification: Fertilizer assumptions need a reviewer note before external grant use. Evidence note: Agricultural emissions are mapped from a screening proxy.

Interpretation boundary

Use Bio blend results for internal screening and improvement prioritization until the active evidence gate is bounded.

Next actions

Reviewer checklist

0/3

1Bound agricultural feedstock distance before interpretation review.
2Confirm TRACI 2.1 + ReCiPe 2016 coverage for the uncertainty appendix.
3Move Bio blend uncertainty language into report limitations.

Driver

Quality signal

Variance share

Reviewer note

Certified bio-based resin share

Medium confidence

34%

Grant appendix should show how certified resin share changes the screening result.

Extrusion electricity factor

Medium confidence

28%

Confirm renewable procurement assumptions before the grant-ready scenario is exported.

Tray mass

High confidence

23%

Mass bounds are stable enough for grant appendix sensitivity.

Agricultural feedstock distance

Low confidence

16%

Bound regional feedstock sourcing before the grant comparison is used externally.

Driver

Quality signal

Variance share

Reviewer note

Certified bio-based resin share

Medium confidence

34%

Grant appendix should show how certified resin share changes the screening result.

Extrusion electricity factor

Medium confidence

28%

Confirm renewable procurement assumptions before the grant-ready scenario is exported.

Tray mass

High confidence

23%

Mass bounds are stable enough for grant appendix sensitivity.

Agricultural feedstock distance

Low confidence

16%

Bound regional feedstock sourcing before the grant comparison is used externally.