Li-ion cell — supplier comparison

High riskExpert reviewedVoltline Mobility · Cradle-to-gate · Scenario compare

Monte Carlo uncertainty - Supplier B

Supplier B cell confidence and risk distribution

Summarize the modeled interval, assumption quality, and reviewer guidance for per 1 kwh cell capacity, cradle-to-gate before results are used in reports or claims.

Needs review10,000 runs

Median impact

738,000kg CO2e

Pilot lot P50 result

90% interval

52%

563,389-946,190 kg CO2e

Exceedance risk

29%

Above the project review bound

Review gates

1of 4

0 uncertainty actions resolved

Low confidenceReviewer context required

Solvent recovery rate is driving the upper uncertainty tail.

The P5-P95 interval spans 563,389 to 946,190 kg CO2e. Treat comparative language as bounded until supplier process disclosure is attached or explicitly disclosed.

Confidence interval

P5 / P50 / P95

P5 563,389P50 738,000P95 946,190

Distribution

Simulation buckets

Frequency of total GWP outcomes across the Monte Carlo run.

Pilot lot / kg CO2e

563k-627k

18%

627k-691k

31%

691k-755k

24%

755k-819k

14%

819k-882k

882k-946k

Risk distribution

Claim-readiness spread

51%

usable with caveats

Within expected range51%
Needs reviewer context34%
Not claim-ready15%

Contribution context

Hotspots under uncertainty

Supplier B process shares used as uncertainty anchors.

Cathode active material273,060 kg
37%
Cell formation electricity177,120 kg
24%
Anode graphite production118,080 kg
16%
Electrolyte and separator88,560 kg
12%
Pack-ready logistics81,180 kg
11%

Data quality

Uncertainty drivers

Parameters contributing most to interval width.

4 drivers

Driver	Quality signal	Variance share	Reviewer note
Formation electricity factor	High confidence	37%	Formation energy has verified bounds and is ready for sourcing scenarios.
Cathode precursor emission factor	Medium confidence	31%	Procurement should preserve route-specific precursor evidence in exports.
Synthetic graphite share	Medium confidence	21%	Graphite route uncertainty should stay visible in the sourcing packet.
Cell manufacturing yield	High confidence	10%	Yield assumptions are stable for internal sourcing interpretation.

Assumptions

Modeled basis

Per 1 kWh cell capacity, cradle-to-gate

Functional basis

Solvent recovery rate: Supplier process disclosure

Expert needed

EF 3.1 + TRACI 2.1 used for uncertainty and robustness context.

Method set

Needed before procurement can use the comparison externally.

Limitation

Reviewer guidance

Use limitations

4 open

Critical review leadREVIEWER

VOC control evidence is pending before public supplier comparisons. Keep solvent recovery rate visible in limitations until the evidence gate is approved.

Impact reviewerREVIEWER

Acidification: Regional precursor emissions should be updated when supplier batch data lands. Evidence note: Cathode precursor emissions are mapped to EF factors.

Impact reviewerREVIEWER

Eutrophication: Waterborne emissions remain secondary data. Evidence note: Electrolyte and precursor pathways are included.

Air-quality reviewerREVIEWER

Smog formation: VOC control evidence is pending for the selected supplier site. Evidence note: Solvent and transport emissions are represented with supplier defaults.

Interpretation boundary

Use Supplier B results for internal screening and improvement prioritization until the active evidence gate is bounded.

Next actions

Reviewer checklist

0/3

1Bound solvent recovery rate before interpretation review.
2Confirm EF 3.1 + TRACI 2.1 coverage for the uncertainty appendix.
3Move Supplier B uncertainty language into report limitations.

Driver

Quality signal

Variance share

Reviewer note

Formation electricity factor

High confidence

37%

Formation energy has verified bounds and is ready for sourcing scenarios.

Cathode precursor emission factor

Medium confidence

31%

Procurement should preserve route-specific precursor evidence in exports.

Synthetic graphite share

Medium confidence

21%

Graphite route uncertainty should stay visible in the sourcing packet.

Cell manufacturing yield

High confidence

10%

Yield assumptions are stable for internal sourcing interpretation.

Driver

Quality signal

Variance share

Reviewer note

Formation electricity factor

High confidence

37%

Formation energy has verified bounds and is ready for sourcing scenarios.

Cathode precursor emission factor

Medium confidence

31%

Procurement should preserve route-specific precursor evidence in exports.

Synthetic graphite share

Medium confidence

21%

Graphite route uncertainty should stay visible in the sourcing packet.

Cell manufacturing yield

High confidence

10%

Yield assumptions are stable for internal sourcing interpretation.